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Good crowds help Moat’s takeover bid.

Posted on September 9th, 2009 | 24 Comments |

40,000 crowds help Moat
40,000 crowds help Moat
The 40,000 crowds we’ve been getting at home games could help Barry Moat’s attempts to take over Newcastle United Football Club.

According to a recent article in The Journal, Moat’s original business plan was based on the Toon attracting 25,000 for home games. I have no idea how The Journal knows that but if we assume it’s true for a minute then the 15,000 additional fans we’ve been attracting could provide leverage for Moat in his negotiations with Barclays about the overdraft.

To be honest, I still wonder what the actual cost of the club will be to Moat or any other potential buyer. We know Ashley’s asking £100m and it has been suggested that the club has drawn £20m on it’s £40m overdraft facility but it’s still not clear to me what happens about the £100m Ashley loaned to the club to clear the debts.

Back in January an accounts boffin – a lecturer in finance at Newcastle’s business school – said:

Newcastle is continuing as a going concern and that is largely based on a £100m loan that has been paid in by Mike Ashley, on which no interest is being charged.

That would be payable on demand if the control of the club was to change. So, any would-be buyer, as well as paying the asking price for the club, would have to secure a re-financing deal to ensure the on-going commercial viability of Newcastle United.”

There have been rumours that Ashley is asking £100m ‘all-in’ but I’d be very surprised indeed if he’s prepared to write off the £100m loan because, let’s face it, that’s an awful lot of money even to a billionaire. This concerns me because any new owner could be saddled with that debt for quite some time and it could have significant repercussions for the rebuilding of the club. Of course I’m just speculating – maybe Ashley is indeed writing that loan off entirely.

The Journal’s article goes on to suggest that – contrary to Rob Lee’s recent comments – it’s quite possible that Shearer and Ashley could find a way to work together. Shearer has maintained a dignified silence about things for the most part and that might keep his options open. Whether or not Shearer is the right man for the job is of course an issue in itself and it’s one that seems to divide fans at the moment.

Apparently talks between Moat and Ashley are still ongoing, although media outlets aren’t in agreement as to what’s causing the delays. Some suggest it’s Moat’s negotiations with Barclays about the overdraft; others suggest the overdraft’s already sorted out and the delays are down to negotiations about how Moat will pay the £100m Ashley’s asking for the club, which won’t be paid in one lump sum because Moat simply can’t afford to.

Well, whatever!

NUFCBlog Author: Hugh de Payen I'm a baby-boomer of the punk rock persuasion, currently exiled in Somerset for crimes committed in a previous life where locals keep trying to poison me with something called 'scrumpy'. Hates sprouts, coat-hangers, Cilla Black, ornaments, Steven Seagull movies and 50 Cent (he's not worth 10). Hugh de Payen has written 634 articles on this blog.

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24 Responses

  1. Morning Hugh. Wonder what would happen if Shearer is appointed once his mate has taken over and our winning streak comes to an end due to dressing room unrest. Would be interesting to hear people’s views on that.

  2. Hugh – no point in speculating or worrying about infortmaion re the prospectus and terms that you have no access to – the variables are infinite. The only people who have to establish value are those wanting to buy the club and those selling the club.

  3. I actually wouldnt be surprised if the final deal provided Ashley with a minority shareholding – 49% or whatever – the 51% share purchase and the operational funds coming from Moat in exchange for Ashley writing off the 100m debt over time on a like for like or ratio’d investment or similar by Moat – for example if Moat raises finance for the purchase of players and the servicing of the overdraft.

    Barclays would have needed to be involved here as there will be technical work on Ashleys diminishing first charge (if he retained the right) and the transference of the overdraft to Morts responsibility -(In terms of how the serviceability of the OD is underwritten eg future revenue backed by a security of sorts (which ironically may have to be Ashley who would in effect buy back Moats shares at a discounted rate equivalent to the paper loss Ashley would make if Mort failed) , Ashley (in terms of diminishing debt to the club) and Mort.

    It would enable Ashley to recoup half the 100m, and sit in the background as the man who would then be seen to run the club would be Moat and Ashley to enjoy the part of owning a club he wanted to.

    Just an idea – its not based on fact – but a possible outcome all the same.

  4. Yeah ! how many would take a £100m. hit and walk away ?
    Afraid there`s been so much secrecy followed by an equal amount of speculation, that it`s become a guessing game as to exactly what`s going on.
    If it were a case of a prospective buyer putting his £100m. on the table, the club would have changed hands months ago.
    I recall MA making a statement to the effect he would be willing to take on a minority partner.
    Seems Moat fits that bill, could be a possible answer to the present state of affairs.
    However seems they are both “big dogs” each wanting to be in control, so unlikely.
    In the mean time we are looking at players who would be rejected out of hand in a Sir Bobby eleven.
    Not looking good, the Cardiff game should be an indicator as to exactly where we are at as a team.
    Perhaps a loss will light a fire under MA`s ass and rid him of any false sense of security that this team is PL bound.
    It`s a long season and even if promotion is in the cards
    would you want to go into the PL with a bunch like this,
    I think not.

  5. I guess there is sense in saying we’re talking about details that we aren’t and may never be privy to but when the press release certain information you have to expect some of it will be near to the truth, so ultimately we’ll speculate until it happens.

    Have a listen to these losers, the third one in particular imparting some wisdom on the local listening community…..

    http://www.metroradio.co.uk/Article.asp?id=524588&spid=20378

  6. chuck says:
    September 9, 2009 at 11:49 am

    “However seems they are both “big dogs” each wanting to be in control, so unlikely.”

    Moat may want to be a “big dog”, but he’s like a persistent little terrier trying to have it off with a Great Dane.

  7. Stardust, comment 3 makes a certain amount of sense (even if it doesn’t actually turn out to be the case). It would take some careful negotiation to set it up to the satisfaction of both Moan and Ashley though.

  8. hey fellas! great blog u got here. been on .com for a very long time tho i dont post much. seems most of the people here came from there. i’m not from Newcastle, i’m from Kenya but the Toon is by far and away my favorite team. here the net is too slow for me to stream games and we only get prem games so i use the websites to get my fix on how our promotion bid is going…

    we seem to have a decent shot as the opposition in this division is pretty poor but we have a paper thin squad. if/when Enrique goes down, i wonder who’ll play there. Edgar would have played there but now that he’s left, who can play there? one of the youngsters? Jonas?

    there’s a lot of questions to be asked, but as for now i’m talking s**t to all my ‘big four’ supporting friends that the Toon are top of the league!! we are… so i aint lying!!

    HOWAY THE LADS!

  9. cloudstrife says:
    September 9, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    “we seem to have a decent shot as the opposition in this division is pretty poor but we have a paper thin squad. if/when Enrique goes down, i wonder who’ll play there. Edgar would have played there but now that he’s left, who can play there? one of the youngsters? Jonas?”

    Tamas Kadar can play left-back, Cloudstrife. Thanks for the kind words about the ‘blog BTW.

  10. in the event of Enrique’s injury, if someone solid but unspectacular plays on our left, Jonas can play L Wing back. Barton could be deployed down that flank to support Jonas’ burts down the wing.

    this could be similar to Liverpool’s right flank, with Kuyt supporting Glen Johnson. if Barton is disciplined enough (?) to stick to his assignment down that flank, with his undoubted skill, the tandem could rip CCC sides apart.

    still hope Enrique doesnt get injured though.

  11. bowburnmag says:
    September 9, 2009 at 12:49 pm (Edit)

    He strong, like bull…… (apply appropriate accent).

    —–

    American Indian is he?

  12. What can I say? Too many westerns as a kid.

    Should be the motto on their gym wall. It’ll sorted them all right out.

  13. “He’s a strong, like a the bull”?

    Trouble is that could be Italian too. Not sure how to cope with that one.

  14. Stardust @ 3 I dont often agree with you lol as you know but you made some real good points I dont think it will happen but I would be happy enough if it did happen.
    Worky your doing a good job as usual ;)

  15. Big Dave says:
    September 9, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    “Worky your doing a good job as usual”

    Many thanks Big Dave, but it’s not just me. All the others are throwing in their bit too.

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