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Another 4 Or 5 Wins For Europa League – Pardew

Posted on March 17th, 2012 | 16 Comments |

Alan Pardew.
"More Wins"
Newcastle United manager Alan Pardew has identified that we must win around half of our 10 remaining fixtures if we are to have a chance of Europa League football next season. When you think of the doom and gloom amongst many supporters at the beginning of the season, qualifying to play in Europe would have to be judged as quite an achievement by all concerned.

Pardew said: “We don’t want to slip. We are saying we are going to push for Europe now and let our fans know we are going to try to push for it. We are going to need four or five wins and if we don’t beat Norwich, that’s going to look difficult in nine games, because that means the task will be that much harder.”

“But if we win, then can we win three or four of our next nine? I think we can, and that would put us in with a great chance of Europe, so it’s a very important game. It’s tough to get into Europe. You have got a team with the finance and quality of Liverpool who could run us down. We will have to hold our hands up if that happens, but we are going to give them a good fight for their money.”

“We are definitely focusing on Europe now, make no mistake about that, we have got ourselves into that position. But Alex Ferguson will tell you the last 10 games are the most important ones and we are in them now, so we will see how we get on.”

The 10 games United have left are split nicely – 5 at home and 5 away.

Home Games: Norwich, Liverpool, Bolton, Stoke and Manchester City

Away Games: West Brom, Swansea, Chelsea, Wigan, Everton

There’s a mix there of what look like easy games on paper and some tough looking fixtures. But if we are going to win 5 games, which would they be?

Lets look at the 5 games at St James’ Park first.

Norwich has to be one of the games we just have to win. Norwich are a tidy outfit who have done well this season, but when they beat us at Carrow Road earlier in the season we were “defenceless”. It will be a different game this time but it will depend upon which United team turns up – the one that thumped Manchester United or the one that capitulated to the likes of Wolves and West Bromwich Albion.

Liverpool will present a much stiffer challenge, but again we have the team to beat them, remembering that this will be a “six-pointer”.

Bolton should also be in our sights – not having the best of seasons and given our results this season we should expect to be too strong for them.

Stoke City were doing well, hit a blip, and seem to be coming back. But they’re not the team they were and should also be target for 3 points.

Manchester City – it goes without saying this will be a tough one. I was in the Leazes End in 1968 (I think that’s when it was) when City won the league in that very game. History repeating itself?

If things don’t go well at home, where could we pick up wins on our travels? After the performance at Arsenal I think we can be more bullish about our prospects here. I wouldn’t expect anything at Chelsea or Everton, but the other 3 games are definitely possibles!

What isn’t clear from Pardew’s statement is whether he’s talking about winning 5 games and losing 5 – or whether he calculates we need to win 5 and pick up some draws?

It would be nice to finish the season with an unbeaten run to finish as we started! Can’t see that happening, but you never know!

So that’s my assessment – what does everyone else think? Your Views welcome below.

NUFCBlog Author: UTD111 UTD111 has written 59 articles on this blog.

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16 Responses

  1. Sorry Alan pahdoo , but you reckon wrong , I looked at last 3 seasons and between 62 and 72 points would secure a 5th / 6th spot …for europe .

    Thats an average of aboot 65 punts , and that means 21 points from last 10 games ..

    Thats 6 wins 3 draws and a loss !
    Or 7 wins 3 losses …
    If we did only win 5 , and lost 3 which is quite likely the 2 remaining draws would give us 17 points !

    Thats 61 points , sure doubt thats enough and can see liverpool and everton finishing strong , so methinks wor manager’s 4 or 5 wins is WRONG ….need more Al back to school please !….

  2. If you’re right Nzedtoonman, he’s either hoping everyone else will lose more games than expected or he’s somehow calculated that the bar will be lower this year?

    Don’t discount the kicking, spitting Mackems finishing strongly either!!

  3. Our form is dreadful, I can’t see use getting more than 13 points to end on 57 – but that should get us 7th place.
    = a successful season for an also ran team.
    If chelski play spurs in the cup final we could even get a euro place (if one of the finalists is liverpool we could still qualify I think).

    But if we don’t beat Norwich ….. well quiet honestly we wouldn’t deserve anything, and (after being 4th) it could be the shock the club needs to convince them to invest properly for success.

    I fear a 2-2

    HWTL

  4. Other teams can lose & draw as well as win.
    Interest rates can go down as well as up!
    Even though you’re alive, you’re still dying!

    ;)

  5. Whatever happens Llambias and the board gave Pardew the task of top ten this season, top eight next season. So I think he will meet their expectations. Whether or not these requirements meet all the fans expectations is debatable when you consider the squad we have and the tactics / style of football we are subjected too, especially since the turn of the year.

  6. Like the proverbial month of March, we started the season like lions and are going out lke lambs.
    Why ?
    Been sussed as a one style fits all team, that can’t change it’s tactics, because our manager only knows how to play hoofball.

  7. Just watched the Sunderland vs Everton cup game, good game.
    Best player on the field was Distin, still a great player well into his thirties.
    Young Mc Clain for Sunderland was a good find, with plenty pace and power.
    Oh ! sorry Clint, forgot you regard pace and power in a player a negative.
    There will be a replay at the SOL, suggest if any of you have friends or relatives, who are Sunderland fans, should ask them to get you a ticket should be a good game.
    Look’s like M. O’N. has got them playing well and should, if they can continue, perhaps give us a run for our money, for who will finish best in the league.

  8. Ten games to go, with “The Makems”and M.O’N. seven points back with a better goal average.
    This should be the acid test for Pardew, if he cant hold onto sixth spot, it should be clear to all he’s sussed. As we have a fairly decent run in.

  9. nzedtoon

    to take the 5 wins theory you need to take into account the fixtures.

    if you take into account who the teams around you have to play and estimate the points they are likely to achieve you can justify what points to expect to finish in a particular position.

    yes last season teams finished x with y points but if you take this season and each game at a time when it come to the latter 5 games for the top 8 teams you might find, on paper, we have a better run.

    when you take into account what teams around us can achieve against their respective teams you will see there are some key factors.

    most of the teams around us have each other to play. i.e. man city v chelsea
    chelsea v spurs
    spurs v swansea (upset possible)
    arsenal v man city
    fulham v chelsea (derby)
    chelsea v toon
    man c v man u
    arsenal v norwich (upset possible)
    arsenal v chelsea
    liverpool v chelsea
    toon v man c

    so when you take into account that not all teams can walk away with all three point each game, you can work out using various equations what a team can achieve with min/max point. you can pitch your expectations against the results and aim for a certain target.

    you can also take into account possible burn out i.e. spurs are still in the FA cup with chelsea also in the champions league.

    and with so many games left to play and so many points to play for this season can imo be a good year to reach Europe.

    it is possible for chelsea to lose out on 18 points. where arsenal have a possible 6. worst case scenario of course.

    but taking last season points tally into account is meaningless as we still have everything to play for.

    it would be good if someone could do the math and tell us what each team can possible achieve and see where we finish with the various outs comes available going on the target pardeux has set

  10. “It would be good if someone could do the math and tell us what each team can possible achieve and see where we finish”

    Yeah good luck with that Stepehen C bearing in mind you’re talking about half the premier league maybe even down to Stoke ?

    IMO asking Pardwho to get this rapidly deteriorating team to win anything before the end of the season is a TALL order.

    http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

    Along with Norwich, Liverpool, Bolton, Stoke, Man City at home we’ve got West Brom, Swansea, Chelsea, Wigan and Everton away.

    Pick the five wins out of that ?

  11. If we are as good as our sixth place position indicates and with this run in, then we should be able to get five wins from the above schedule, with only Man Citeh and Chelsea being tough games.
    With bottom sides like Wigan and Bolton gimee’s, plus if we cant beat West Brom and Norwich at home……
    Pool and Everton are not unwinnable, expect at least a draw there.
    Stoke, tough well drilled side, but beatable.
    Swansea away will possibly be a good game to watch, with Rodgers a good young coach, getting a lot outta the side, playing attractive football.
    Would’nt mind replacing Pardew with him.
    Regardless we should pick up at least fifteen points outta the next ten games.

  12. Felt the same way after BBM’s sad demise and now Muamba. Makes posting on web sites seem so irrelevant in the whole scheme of things :(

    God bless Fabrice.

  13. chuck,

    i was merely drawing attention to your little scheme mate.

    I’m all for power & pace.
    It’s very becoming in a footballer.
    ;)

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